Don’t Follow the Gambler’s Fallacy
May 6th, 2010 May 6th, 2010 Posted in Gambling Luck, Universe Of Games, Web Of FunComments Off
Don’t Follow the Gambler’s Fallacy Poker is a game that involves taking a gamble, though less so than other casino games or slot machines. In poker online, one makes decisions based on cards, people and position as to how to play their hands. The same hand can and should be played very differently based on those three factors. However, the gambler in each poker online player’s psyche sometimes misleads an individual into wrongful thinking and irrational conclusions. This is the “Gambler’s Fallacy” - convincing oneself that the next hand will have an outcome based on luck, probability and previous hands. This Gambler’s fallacy is what drives people to roll the dice just one more time - over and over again. The Gambler’s Fallacy distracts poker online players from the one basic truth about the game - the cards are always random and one hand does not influence another. An example of how the Gambler’s fallacy interferes with solid poker playing is this: A player has lost ten drawing hands in a row, and so now believes that a winning draw is due. It is true that luck evens out in the long run. It is not true that when luck runs against you, it is due to change any minute based on probability. The probability of losing ten times in a row with a drawing hand that ordinarily has a one-in-five probability of winning goes against the odds. But then, the odds are not written in stone. Every hand is random. Just because a hand has a probability of wining a certain percentage of times, doesn’t mean it necessarily adheres to those numbers like an accountant. Do not fall into the trap of thinking you are due for win based on past losses - that is the Gambler’s Fallacy.